Blu-ray Disc movie sales will account for 50% of all home-video sales in the United States by 2012, analysts from Futuresource Consulting said today. The statement came partly in response to Toshiba’s decision to join the Blu-ray Disc Association, a sign, the company said, of the high-definition format finally hitting its stride.
Futuresource’s quarterly Blu-ray Disc hardware tracker shows European Blu-ray Disc player sales — excluding PS3 — running at close to 300% higher year-over-year, and “clearly Toshiba is keen to get its share of this business.”
“Retail prices are declining fast, and we expect to see players at or below 80-100 Euros by the Christmas selling season,” Futuresource said in a statement.
“Blu-ray Disc players will approach impulse purchase level very soon,” Futuresource’s statement continued, “and at these levels people will be increasingly tempted to replace DVD players with the new format. Although paid-for movie downloads are also impacting the marketplace, mainstream adoption will be a much more gradual process, giving Blu-ray Disc the competitive edge.
“Just 12% of US consumer expenditure on home video will originate from online in 2012, with a slightly lower proportion in Europe.
“BD disc sales continue to expand into all major markets and genres. In particular, the action adventure genre dominates, appealing strongly to the young male technology adopter, which also closely matches the PS3 owner profile. For some high profile titles, close to 25% of all disc sales have been on BD.
“With more than 1,100 BD titles to choose from, combined with growing retail support and increased promotional activity, the rise of Blu-ray will help to offset declining sales of standard DVD product.”
But here’s the fascinating statement of the day: “By 2012, around 50% of US and 35% of Western European video disc retail sale volumes will be Blu-ray.”
If that bears true, Blu-ray may finally reap the rewards of killing HD-DVD. As long as the recession and economy cooperate, of course.