The install base of the PlayStation 3 is too small for some key developers’ tastes, say analysts with theSimExchange, and the PS3 being the lowest-selling game system during the 2007 holiday season isn’t likely to help matters.
In October and November, the first-person shooter market — which analyst Jesse Divnich says can only support two premier titles at once under normal circumstances– was dominated by The Orange Box and Halo 3 on Xbox 360, while November and December were dominated by Call of Duty 4 and Halo 3. On the PS3, however, The Orange Box saw particularly low sales.
“Unfortunately, the PS3 has such a small install base it is unable to successfully support two first-person-shooters in the same month,” said Divnich. “This theory will likely hold true for other great titles under the same genre, with Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune and Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction cannibalizing each other’s sales in December.”
TheSimExchange is an online virtual stock market in which gamers, developers and investors trade stock to predict how games will sell.
Divnich did note that as the PS3 install base grows, Sony’s console will be able to support more than one standout title per genre. That date may be a ways off, however, as theSimExchange shows PS3 sales being exceeded by every other current-gen gaming system, including the Nintendo DS (of course) and Sony’s own PSP (PlayStation Portable).
The weaker-than-the-rest sales will have little effect on the Blu-ray format, however, as theSimExchange anticipates Blu-ray Disc as a format will handily defeat HD-DVD, particularly in light of Warner Bros.’ announcement to publish its movies exclusively on Blu-ray effective June 1.
Not surprisingly, the defeat of HD-DVD is not predicted to effect sales of Xbox 360, whose HD-DVD player is strictly an add-on, not an internal drive.